This graph illustrates the trajectory of Shasta County’s median home prices for the last decade. I plotted the data from David Benda’s recent article in the Record Searchlight about the 15% increase in home sales we saw in 2011 in Shasta County. Although sales are up, inventory is down. You would think demand would drive prices up. I can’t predict just when, but it seems likely at some point the current price decline trend will reverse.
This is a follow up to yesterday’s post about David Benda’s recent article in the Record Searchlight about our local housing sales. I pulled this data from the Shasta MLS and put it in graphic form to illustrate the trends.
For sale now in the Shasta MLS
805 homes are for sale in Shasta County. Inventory is down quite a bit.
91 are bank or govt. owned. (REO)
216 are short sales.
38% of the available inventory is distress sales.
Sold in 2011
2113 homes sold in Shasta County in 2011, up 15% over prior year.
961 were bank or govt. owned, up 30% over prior year.
260 were short sales, an increase of 54% over prior year.
58% of all sales in 2011 were distress sales.
Sold in 2010
1838 homes in Shasta County in 2010
738 were bank or govt. owned
169 were short sales.
49% of 2010 sales were distress sales.
A few quick observations. Although a large portion of sales last year was bank or government owned (REO), you can see in the top chart, it represents a small proportion of what’s for sale. REOs are in high demand and drive the market. Also of interest is that short sales are numerous in our inventory, but represent a small proportion of actual sales. Although that fraction grew from 9% in 2010 to 12% in 2011, short sales are still very difficult to get done.
Highest levels in 4 years point to market rebound”
Well, we hope that’s true. It’s a hopeful article about our local housing market, pointing to a 15% rise in home sales, year over year. Yay!
That being said, there are something like 77,000 housing units in Shasta County. Last year, about 250 more homes sold than the year previous (the noted 15% increase). That works out to .003 of the total market. I’m not sure that three one-thousandths of the market is enough for meaningful trend spotting. Although sales were up, prices were down. That seems important.
With something like a quarter of all homes with mortgages owing more than their home can sell for (underwater mortgages), the price trend is still going in the wrong direction. Until that price trend reverses, housing activity will continue to remain depressed.
Then there is the so called shadow inventory. Scattered throughout the county are a number of homes in some state of pre-foreclosure. Some, like the example below, remain in this limbo for extended periods. How many homes are coming, and when will they be put up for sale?
This West Redding home has been vacant and awaiting foreclosure since Sept 2010.
Great time to be a buyer though. Low interest rates and low prices. We know there are still more foreclosures coming, although inventory is currently low. You can always see all the local housing inventory without registering at TheAddressRealty.com. And you can always find a full list of distress sale properties that are actually available at ReddingForeclosures.info. Both sites work great on your smartphone or tablet computer.
Nobody local seems to want to build tiny homes anymore. The reason is purely economic. Housing is primarily valued on square footage, all else aside. Yet, years ago in Redding, small homes were quite common. How much space do you really need? Here’s a really interesting blog about tiny homes and their owners. A thoughtful group. Check it out:
We suspect this blog gets read by other Realtors too, so this may be of interest to you guys. This week is Inman Connect. Here’s Erin with Chris Smith, Chief Evangelist for Agent Reboot and Inman News. Chris is a much admired figure in our business. Really dynamic to listen to and watch.
Inman Connect is one of the most important real estate conferences for Realtors who keep up on the latest. You can follow along with attendees commentary on Twitter, using hashtags #agentrb and #icny. It’s incredible really, that you can follow progress of a conference on the other side of the continent in real time. There is an abundance of ideas here for RE professionals. Follow along.
Here I am with Brad Inman. Brad is the founder of Inman News which serves as a clearinghouse for the very latest real estate news that help us do better work for our clients. Despite being so influential in real estate, Brad is super nice. Networking like this allows us to bring you the latest and best ideas to the Northstate.
So if you can read this, maybe this isn’t of interest at all. But if you know any Spanish speaking homebuyers, the California Association of Realtors has set up a website for home search in Spanish. It’s at:
You can always translate a webpage at:
http://www.freetranslation.com/
Not sure how helpful that is for home search however. Using Google translate and new mobile phone apps we can usually communicate, however slowly, with just about anyone.
Lo podemos ayudar a encontrar una casa en el Redding área de CA no importa lo que idioma que usted hable.
Call or Text (530) 255 4070
Here’s an over-the-top home with an equally outrageous marketing video. Ready for a rockstar. Crank up the volume.
We love doing real estate videos. See our 662 Joaquin video from a few days ago, which is generating good traffic. It can’t compare to this production however. Desert Castle is in Palm Desert, and has its own website, of course.
Oh, and just how much are they asking for this amazing house? If you have to ask, you can’t afford it. You can afford to watch the video though.
For a look at a more local luxury home on sale, check out today’s Foreclosure Deal of the Day in Stanford Hills. We can get you in that one for a look, and you can imagine it with your own soundtrack.
There has been noticeable sharp drop in the number of local homes for sale around here. We have more buyers than homes to buy. In an ordinary marketplace, the laws of supply and demand would force prices higher, but this is housing in 2012. Housing supply and financing availability is set by the government. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the HUD organizations trickle out the supply of foreclosures for sale, and are the only game in town for 30 year financing. So home prices are simply whatever the government says (or does). Home prices are still mostly below replacement cost, held down artificially, from what we can see.
Cailfornia's Capitol by Skip Murphy. Image completely unrelated to article
Yesterday we listed 662 Joaquin Ave Redding CA 96002 for sale. Its a classic Redding ’60s ranch style home that was quite upscale for the times. It’s had some updating, but retains its mid-century hipster vibe. We shot a tour video, and it does a good job of showing it off. We like to make fun of the big-haired Realtor stereotype, so watch for that too. We don’t take ourselves to seriously around here, but this is a seriously cool house that somebody is going to love. Call or Text us if you’d like to learn more, or see it in person. (530) 255 4070
We can do a good job showing off your home too if you need to sell it. Give us a call.
Some 14 families are projected to get assistance from a $700,000 grant awarded to Shasta Lake City for basically “buying down” the mortgage to make it more affordable. Buyers will need a downpayment of 3% to buy, but the assistance will allow them to buy more house than they might otherwise. It’s a terrific program for those who qualify.
Jessaca Lugo, (530) 275 7464 is the Program Manager for the City of Shasta Lake. If you or anyone you know might benefit from this information, let them know. We have had clients take advantage of these programs in the past, and it really was quite a bonus for them. There are other similar programs for Redding, Anderson, and Shasta County, but as far as we know, only Shasta Lake is getting funded.
As always, time is of the essence in real estate. Here is a link to all the homes listed for sale in Shasta Lake City that you can view without registration.
As of publishing, there are 51 homes listed for sale. The big problem is there are so few available in the range around $150K (few, as in “none”), which seems to be the most desirable level right now.