A highlight from last week’s REALTOR Education Day at the Gaia in Anderson was the presentation by California Association of Realtors Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. You can’t know where you’re going unless you know where you’ve been. I always like to see the latest California Median Home Price Chart from Leslie. Click to expand a bit. This is statewide. As we have long predicted, we have bounced along the bottom for while before turning up again. And turn up we have. Look at those last yellow bars on the right. Here’s one reason why: Low inventory! Coupled with low interest rates, demand is incredibly strong again.
Remarkably similar to conditions in 2005…
By one measure, as reported by the National Association of Homebuilders. Of course, Redding began from a very low point, so ‘most improved’ is something of a relative term. Still, we definitely feel it out here in the streets, where the tight housing market is proving challenging for home buyers. The local housing marketplace has begun to dig itself out, and things are looking brighter every day.
The Record Searchlight had this headline today. Fewer Homes, Bigger Battles. It’s not news to readers here. Especially in the sub $200K range, the competition can be fierce.
Click on the “thumbnail” (look, there’s my thumbnail!) image for more. If you are thinking of buying, we can help you get that edge on the pack you may need. If you’ve been waiting to sell, this shortage of inventory gives you a lot more leverage than you’ve had in years.
Here’s a chart we like to run. The bars show housing inventory. Local home sales jumped up by about 24 homes for the month, for a total of 187.
we are still constrained by lack of inventory. If you know anyone selling, there is high demand for homes in and around Redding and Shasta County. Sellers have much better leverage than any time in recent memory.
You may see other numbers published elsewhere. This is simply our own brokerage look at home sales and inventory extending from about Shingletown to Whiskeytown, and from Lakehead to Lake California, which is actually in Tehama County. This is our general area of interest and where most of the real estate transactions take place in our MLS.
Still looking for a bottom in housing market prices? You may have missed it.
Of course, one never knows the market bottom except by seeing it in the perfect rear view mirror of 20-20 hindsight. Is this truly the bottom?
For sure, prices are up, and inventory is way, way down. If the laws of supply and demand haven’t been completely manipulated out of existence by housing finance policy, then prices should naturally follow. So here we are. Click on either thumbnail image to go to Zillow for more..
Here’s a chart of localized home sales for last month. Numbers down slightly. We don’t have a large market, so it’s hard to see trends month to month because the statistical sample is too small to be significant. Still, we like to look. This is from the set of home sales consisting roughly of Whiskeytown to Shingletown, and Lake California to Lakehead. Low inventory is still having the biggest impact on local sales. We have buyers out looking. But there used to be a lot more to choose from.
Up, just a bit. We are still mostly constrained by lack of inventory, with more buyers than homes to sell. Here’s the chart of inventory: These numbers come from the Shasta MLS and are only the areas around “greater Redding,” which is more or less Shingletown to Whiskeytown, and Lakehead to Lake California. The bars show inventory remains at a low point. Here are the numbers behind the chart: So, maybe 14 more homes sold in October than September. We could have sold a few more, if only we had homes to sell that were suitable for our clients.
Supply and demand is said to be the main controller of markets. Lately we’ve seen strong demand for local housing, and short supply of homes to sell. The bars generally indicate the amount of supply on hand. In housing terms, it would take us less than 6 months to sell out completely if no new homes came up for sale in that time. Sales are down, however. Not because there aren’t people waiting around to buy, but because there isn’t much out there to show. Here’s the numbers for the last 24 months: These are home sales in the greater Redding metro area, consisting of Shingletown to Whiskytown, and from Lakehead to Lake California. As you can see, there is a slight trend downward in sales. But look back 24 months to see what’s happened to our supply.
Readers should factor in the sales seasons, with Spring our traditional heaviest volume period. Still, demand is high. If you have been thinking about selling, the tide is in your favor. Give us a call and we can discuss your options and home value, no obligation. Call or Text (530) 255 4070
The Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors forecasts the 2013 housing market for California in this brief video. Well worth your viewing time.
Interesting trends. If you have been thinking about listing your home for sale, things are really looking up. Give us a call and we can discuss you individual circumstances, no obligation. Call or Text (530) 255 4070